Should I purchase now?
 

I know there are a few similar threads to this one right now but I didn't want to hijack one of them and wanted specific advice.

I have been looking for a rural property to move to for the last year and finally found one that is close to perfect. The question is how much more time do you think there is before TSHTF and would I be better off buying now or looking for a more ideal site?

Pros of this property are:

-In the middle of nowhere but still close enough to a decent sized town
-Plenty of land, 39 acres, decent soil and good rainfall
-Small stream on property with clean water
-Plenty of varied timber
-Very close to a provincial park, I could walk up a mountain off the back of my property and be gone.
-In the mountains, less than a hour from the ocean, large river nearby
-Good price
-Lots of wild game and edible plants nearby

Cons

-Warmer than where I live now but not as nice as some other places I have looked
-Stream is too small for micro hydro, not much wind; cloudy in the winter so may be difficult to generate my own electricity.
-Near train tracks (100 yards) so a bit noisy sometimes (one of the reasons this place is cheap I think)
-Near airstrip. Didn't check it out but I think it is a grass strip (I suppose this also could be a plus)
-Not cleared at all so I would have to do this myself before I can start gardening/farming
-May not be able to get any financing so I might have to cash in a large portion of my silver to purchase this property.

So my main concern I would say is the financing problem as I would have to cash out my silver which I think is just getting ready to take off. Also the electricity problem bothers me as I was hoping to not have to connect to the grid.

Should I put in an offer now or keep looking for a better place? I have pretty much made up my mind to put in an offer but I wouldn't mind a second opinion.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

real estate values are very local questions. you need to compare to other sales in the relevant market in the past year. that can tell you how not to pay too much.

if you are near a major metro area, also, you may be paying too much. wait for the bubble to deflate a little more first

you have also said nothing of overall location. you need to look at the proximity to large areas of unruly socalled "humans" such as the denizens of the barrios and ghettoes. you dont want to be too close to any such places or in a state where you are going to be really outnumbered.

most people will be too chicken to talk about the race factor but if you are smart you will do the research.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Tn_Andy may know more real estate.

Sounds ideal, I'd go for it, calculating whether the area is in bubble-pricing (less likely if rural). What you might do if traffic on this property is slow (probably is if it's nowhere and needs to be cleared) is to lowball them. Then they know you're interested and will probably inform you if another offer appears. OTOH, if you're lucky, they say yes to a price you didn't imagine possible.

Another thing would be to owner-finance, option, or some other useful-but-time-consuming contract.

No one can tell when the plug will be pulled, but I know that clearing takes a year, and fruit trees and vines take 5 years, so time is not on your side. If there is an inflationary blowoff, it might run 'til the wheels fall off, an extension to the '94-01 market, so as a wave 5 would be something like 5 years and something less than Dow 20,000--in runaway inflation that's not a high number.

I can tell that silver is in seasonality and the technicals look favorable starting this week. If historical, it will run to May and reach $18. Rosen, who focuses on Elliot-time, claims September, but I find that hard to credit.

Conclusion: it doesn't have to be either-or. It takes ages to close on property. After a verbal sale it can take a year just to get two slow lawyers in the same room.

TS

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Yeah Simpleton, I was thinking of lowballing on my offer as I don't think the owner has had any offers yet in a few months on the market.

Anty Ep
The town I referred to is about 45 minutes drive away and has a population of about 20,000. As for any large metro areas the closest is probably about 350 miles away but since there are no roads that go strait there you have to go way around 8+ hour drive I bet. No racial issues, I have been to see the property and stayed in the town for a day.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

It sounds great. If you don't buy it please PM me - I'll buy it!

Although the RE market is crashing and entering a prolonged bear market, it sounds like you've found something of tangible value: a nice size parcel in a semi-remote location with fresh water and forest. I theorize that as residential homes depreciate, larger rural parcels will actually appreciate as their value becomes more apparent to people. So, if I were you, I'd make a low-ball offer (but don't insult the seller) and try to buy it and this way you can get settled and get on with your life.

Good luck.:clap2:

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

What state is this in if you don't mind me asking?

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

If you are still in Alberta, than go for it. Alberta is still booming and have the infrastructure to keep it going with the gas and sands in Fort Mac.

Are you far North? 350 from a major town sounds like North of Edmonton or close to Fort St. John or Grande Prairie to me.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

I strongly agree. However well the property might otherwise suit my needs, that's a deal breaker.

RR tracks could well bring the very people you're trying to avoid in a SHTF situation right into your backyard. It's not inconceivable that if things fall apart badly, you might find yourself driven off your property for security reasons, as railroads are a resource likely to be heavily guarded. They are a target in times of war, and refugees often travel them in times of population displacement.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Absolutely. I think odds favor lower or at least stable re prices for a while. I would be hesitant to sell a major portion of physical metals here at what I think will be seen as low prices 2 years from now. Keep looking and try to find a really motivated seller. Don't be afraid to offer a very low price. You never know what they will take. Inherited property usually gets dumped well below market value. Good luck.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

I agree with these guys. Those trains are mighty loud to boot. Be patient and keep looking for something more suitable.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Sounds like you like the piece of property. Does it feel like home? If so then I would buy it. You will know it when you see/feel it

I know that sounds Zen but you know it when it happens

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Buy it regardless, sounds like YOU like it and have doubt. Forget the Armegedon railroad tramps gonna steal You blind, its probably cheap. Just cause Ya buy it dosent mean ya have to own it the rest of your life , buy it and plow the field, fence it and spruce it up and sell if you choose in 3 years. Sweat equity will probably put 20K$ in your pocket within 3 years,

Sounds to me even if its a mistake ya wont get hit too hard.

And youll sleep better. dont ask these folks they come from a place of MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Think so? Two marriages down the road I am starting to doubt the old Zen. felt good at the time.:haha:

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

I think if the man asked he is in a place of me as well. No sense going off half cocked and making a major mistake is there? There are tons of places to buy. Like the old Smokey Robinson song. Shop around.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Ihslancers; I had the impression he has looked at a lot and hes ready to 'pull-it' , and he dosent want to sell his silver that he has big plans for.

Its a tough call. Silver could very possibly linger in the 13$ to 20$ range for 2-3 years.

If hes living with relatives or atight quarters this jump would be a real boost for self/zen and self-worth. A Man has to build and do it soon.

I caught trepidation from the fellow and thats not a good place. So I say jump in because there is no apperent downside. , so get out and fix her up and sell it in a few years, we got a few years before Depression II.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

I dunno. Little danger in renting for a while in the area and getting a feel first. He sells the Silver and we go north hard and he hates the place he bought that sucks. Ya know. I'd go real slow with the real estate thing now. Unless I could steal my dream I'd hold off.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

I agree, I'd wait and shop around. It may feel right because it's rural and that's something different than what you have. You probably envision yourself living self sufficiently and at peace.
However
The train track deal would kill it for me - they're there to stay, and time is on your side pertaining to near future real estate prices.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

I think if you didn't have some qualms about the purchase you would not
be asking for peoples advice. I would listen to the little voice that is telling you no. Just my .02.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Now that is good advice anytime about anything.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

ROTFLMFAO. Good one lhslancers.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Is this RR track a major route, or is a side spur? That'll affect the noise decision. The other thing you have to consider, living near tracks, is that even if the trains aren't running, people will walk along them, since RR tracks "have to go somewhere, right?" In a Breakdown situation, you could get a lot of visitors.

As for the stream, would you have the right to dam it, to build up a pond to provide pressure for a microturbine (as well as a place to stock fish)?

I think the tracks are a dealbreaker, too. It may be rural, but it isn't remote.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

that wasnt your zen talking that was sumpfin else :banana:

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

fyi, I am in a location that rates very well according to home price vs median income, so they say there is no bubble.

wrong! I talked to someone who does lots of foreclosures and he said that sheriffs auction day is seing almost five times as many sales.

FIVE TIMES as many foreclosures as a couple years ago.

Oh and Fannie Mae has new stats out that say the amount of home equity loans cashing out has increased-- at higher interest rates.

The economy keeps on rolling ahead full steam towards collapse folks!

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Sounds like the property is in BC. You are correct that the airstrip and railroad are major factors in why it hasn't sold.
Recreational land prices have boomed the last ten years, but recreational land buyers usually won't buy next to an interstate highway, gas plant, railroad, airstrip or anything else that might spoil the serenity.
Financing: Seller financing may not be on the table, but the seller may be ready to sell and would carry on a balloon note if you paid 20 or 30% down.
Like many sellers, he may have spent the money in his mind a thousand times and is frustrated with the lack of liquidity in land investments. You might be able to get it for 70% asking price.
A 3 year balloon is awful tempting to a seller who might envision (with the help of his broker) foreclosing at that time, in 3 years you might be able to cash out 1/3 as much silver as you would today.

Does it have any southern (solar) exposure? In the winter solar could be supplemented by a generator.
What else is in the watershed of the stream? In some areas people drill wells several hundred feet deep when they have waterfront property because the surface water is no good.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

A good way to approach sellers is to have a couple of other prospects and tell them about it. Your position is that you are lowballing around to see who is motivated. That way your first offer of only 65% of asking price will be justified. Very seldom are sellers indignant about lowball offers. Don't worry about that. This may be the only offer they have had in a year and they are more worried about you buying one of the other properties you are considering.

Ask if they have an old title commitment (title preliminary) from a deal that fell through or a title policy from when they bought it. Often land has an easement going straight through it and sellers don't happen to mention it, knowing that by the time you read the title commitment you are hooked. Also make sure the mineral rights are still attached.

Make sure the area does not have any zoning restrictions that might prevent you from building a cabin.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Thanks for all the sugestions guys. By the answers I've gotten I would assume most of you think the really bad times are still a few years off?

The property is in North Western B.C and is close enough to the coast to be much milder than it would be otherwise. The stream is a small one coming right off the side of a mountain so I'm pretty sure no contamination. The land is south facing so would have decent sunlight when it is not cloudy. I pretty much fell in love with this property until I heard the train. Then I found out about the airstrip when I was looking at a map. I think I might hold off for awhile with a purchase.

Here in Alberta because of all the oil money property is soaring and is getting to the point where I feel the prices are too high. Homes in Edmonton are selling for almost 50% more than they were last year.

That is one reason why I am looking at B.C. Also better weather in many parts than can be found anywhere in Alberta. Plus I not only enjoy being in the mountains but also feel they are a safer place to live.

Some parts of Canada are starting to get stagnant as far as real estate goes but our government didn't cut rates as far as the US has and hasn't raised them as much either. So I am not sure if real estate will tank here also. Anyone know how this might play out?

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Real estate prices WILL tank, but small farmsteads and survival retreats will most likely hold strong, IMO. The worst investment OTOH is high-end urban homes.

Re: Should I purchase now?
 

Before we EVER purchase a new car, we always go out and rent one for a week or two to see if we can 'live' with our choice. There are very few automobiles that cannot be rented. You know, is it easy to load groceries into? Can it fit in the garage? Do the ergonomics fit us? There are lots of 'little things' that can pop up during an extended 'test drive' as it were.

This is basically the same idea that was mentioned earlier. If you truly like this particular area, rent a property in the small town nearby. Stay at least one year. During that timeframe, ask around. You will get a feel for the area and will get to know who is and is not selling what.

Also, while you mention surface water, but there are a couple of things you should ALWAYS find out about prior to even making an offer. They are the water rights (surface and below ground) AND mineral rights (surface and below ground). My family STILL holds the mineral rights to a piece of property in New Mexico, even though my grandparents sold the property, they kept the mineral rights. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT.

And I concur with everyone else, the RR tracks should be a deal breaker. Unless it's a spur line WAYYY OFFF the main line. Then MAYBE it might be OK. OR NOT.